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MARS Blog: 变革——2020年新西兰经济、政治注定要面对的局面

作者: 老墨儿    人气: 1506    日期: 2020/6/6







作者:MARS地产经理Keith Ward,一点ThePoint评论员心点



Beige and Brown Photo Moms Collection YouTube Thumbnail (2).jpg


对于大部分待在习惯的舒适圈里才感到安心的人来说,听见“变革”二字,即心生抗拒。人类的共性使我们喜欢稳定的和可预见的,而非意料之外的“惊喜”。



但对于生活和世界来说,变革几乎随时都会发生。对于2020年来说,无论是科技还是新冠病毒,都给我们所生活的世界带来了巨大的改变。许多观点都认为,受疫情影响,这个世界或许再难回复疫情前的秩序,将永久地被改变了。



对于新西兰来说,经济遭防疫封城带来的副作用而受到重创,产生的多方面改变自年初影响至今,也必将延续至年底。在房地产领域,各家银行已经进入了“利率战争”状态,为争夺市场占有率,不惜以降低利率为武器。更低的利率纪录几乎每一周都会被刷新。



拓展阅读:

getpic.aspx?url=https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/104973/rapid-fire-breaks-out-mortgage-wars-%C2%A0combatants-each-aim-marginally


对于广大身背借贷的屋主来说,享受自第二次世界大战以后的最低利率必然是好消息,如此低的利率是疫情造成的经济危机的“病中偶得”,是不幸中的万幸,算是难得的积极的变革了。对于投资者来说,利率是投资大部分房产的多种成本中最大的一种。而对初次购房买家来说,各大银行自5月1日取消LVR规定后,亦是利好。尽管对于部分银行来说,初次购房买家过低的收入仍然是他们借贷的最大限制。低利率、取消LVR规定带来的刺激,或许在2021年银行的信贷政策变得更加谨慎后,难再持续?




无论这次降低利率的刺激效应能持续多久,对于大多数投资者来说,新西兰四大城市的房产仍然是不二的投资选择。在失业率注定攀升的前提下,大量求职人员将势必涌入以奥克兰为首的新西兰四大城市,寻找工作机会的同时,带来庞大的住房需求。对于新西兰劳动主力来说,股票、存款的回报稳定性,早已是无法信赖的昨日黄花。




九月份即将迎来大选,届时将会产生更多变数。选情因与疫情胶着,激烈程度可想而知。哪个政党是人民心中那个可以带领我们走出当前阴霾的经济环境,将会由选票决定。未来三个月,新西兰社会将因政治版图变迁而充满悬念。同时,十一月份美国大选也更将催生全球环境内的更多变革。俗话说,对于政治来说,一周的时间也显得过于漫长,在选情结果公布前,存在着太多可以影响结果的不确定因素。工党将主打全球范围内最成功的的防疫成果,国家党将强调他们在经济发展和重建方面的经验,而上届造王者皮特斯又将发表何种言论来自救?这些都将影响选民的决定。




在就业市场中,许多经济问题因巨额工资补贴得到暂时的掩盖。作为雇主,如果你企业的收入下降了五成,你可以持续申请员工的工资补贴,直到九月份。因此,很多裁员将不会马上发生,更大的失业浪潮或许会在补贴停止发放后爆发。同样,一些难以维持的企业得到了回光返照式的延续,但在补贴发放终止后,原本就存在不良问题的它们或许也难逃永久停业的结局。


更重要的是,许多大企业已经先行倒在了封城结束之前。汉堡王连锁快餐店破产,鲍尔媒体集团,新西兰多本知名杂志的母公司倒闭。此外,新西兰航空、Fletchers建筑公司、天空城等大型企业,都纷纷宣布裁员数千人以求自保。大树如此,小草何堪?Tony Alexander等专家,都对新西兰中小企业的命运感到悲观。在资金流等方面本就较大企业不如的众多小规模公司,将面临更艰难的局面。新西兰财政部保守估计,到2020年年底,国家的失业率将激增至百分之十,届时才是新西兰经济困局的开始。


拓展阅读:

getpic.aspx?url=https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/coronavirus-new-zealand-could-face-10pc-unemployment-following-covid-19-lockdown.html


不过,新西兰立国已百余年,在新科技和便捷的航空产业兴起前既已存在,已经经历过多次全球性的经济衰退或危机,新西兰的民众始终保持着积极、乐观的态度面对历史上的诸多挑战。或许对于而立之年的人们,经济难题是张新考卷,但对于他们的父辈来说,早已司空见惯。


经验和损失带来的宝贵财富是智慧,智慧将带领我们走出困境,克服艰难岁月。MARS地产集团即拥有我们所在的行业里的丰富经验,在过去的几十年里,我们的团队已经陪伴我们的客户在经济起伏的潮起潮落中平安掌舵,渡过了多次危机。我们的双语销售和管理团队,在2020年的重大变革发生之时,亦将一如既往,与您相伴,砥砺前行。


 原文链接:getpic.aspx?url=https://marsrealty.co.nz/whats-new-in-real-estate

以下英文原文:

Technology adoption and usage has had a massive increase in the CV19 lockdown and is likely to be continued and become more common in usage – why drive through rush hour traffic when you can Zoom or WeChat video to meet online?

LVR Rules being abolished is another HUGE change as this removes the Reserve Bank restriction put in place in late 2017 on deposit sizes – so first home buyers with low deposit but high incomes will now be able to buy a home, subject to banking consent. And investors who have strong business cashflow or personal income will be able to use equity in their existing portfolio more positively than when LVR rules were introduced so both these sectors of the market will benefit.

The new business loan of $10,000 to a maximum of $100,000 announced recently by the Govt was due to banks not approving many business loans under the previous package. Banks are not social services and will use their own assessment business criteria upon loans whereas the Govt. is wishing to be more supportive of any business that was solvent before CV19 and needs assistance to recover due to the impact and economic fallout of the Level 4 lockdown.

The Govt has also said it wishes more speedy building consents processes to see new build construction increase rapidly to help soak up rising unemployment numbers – unfortunately in Auckland, the Council has advised that due to CV19, they will now be taking up to 40 days to review and process building consents, double the previous 20 days before CV19 – a disconnect it appears!

Commercial construction and high rise apartment blocks certainly appear to be in doubt now whereas demand for residential property still appears strong with more buyers than sellers likely in the next few months – but what nobody can predict is how the market will react by say 2021 with unknowns in recovery in many industries. The market is the market and will show us as time passes but really the multiple “opinions of experts” being offered every second day is all rather moot.

And breaking news in the past 2 days is mortgage interest rates have dropped to 2.99% pa. as mortgage war breaks out between banks – great for qualifying buyers and the lowest rates in 70 years since WW2!




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