Infometrics director and chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said the US tariffs’ effect on the NZ dollar has been so large because we are a small nation that is highly reliant on trade.
Infometrics 总监兼首席预测员 Gareth Kiernan 表示，美国关税对新西兰元的影响如此之大，因为我们是一个高度依赖贸易的小国。

“Obviously, the US tariffs represent a significant new barrier in the way of global trade. Markets are effectively expecting slower US economic growth because of the tariffs and, perhaps even more importantly, slower growth in other countries such as China, which is our largest export market.”
“显然，美国的关税代表了全球贸易道路上的一个重大新障碍。由于关税，市场实际上预计美国经济增长会放缓，也许更重要的是，其他国家的增长会放缓，比如中国，这是我们最大的出口市场。

“That slower economic growth is likely to feed through into lower prices for our exports, reducing exporters’ incomes and inhibiting New Zealand’s expected economic recovery over 2025/26.
“经济增长放缓可能会反映出我们的出口价格下降，减少出口商的收入，并抑制新西兰在 2025/26 年的预期经济复苏。”

“International investors are effectively looking at that possible outcome and deciding they don’t want to put their money in NZ at the moment. Of course, the weaker exchange rate actually helps to mitigate any fall in international export prices and, therefore, helps cushion our economy from the worst effects of any global slowdown.
“国际投资者正在有效地观察这种可能的结果，并决定他们目前不想将资金投入新西兰。当然，疲软的汇率实际上有助于缓解国际出口价格的任何下跌，因此有助于缓冲我们的经济免受任何全球经济放缓的最坏影响。

“Expectations around interest rates could also be dragging the New Zealand dollar lower – slower economic growth here might lead to more interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank. However, I wouldn’t expect the interest rate story to be a big driver, because the global slowdown could be expected to lead to a similar shift in thinking for interest rates in most other countries as well (apart from the US, where inflation will be more problematic due to their tariffs).
“对利率的预期也可能拖累新西兰元走低——新西兰经济增长放缓可能会导致新西兰储备银行进一步降息。然而，我不认为利率故事会成为很大的驱动力，因为全球经济放缓可能导致大多数其他国家的利率思维也发生类似的转变（美国除外，由于关税，通胀问题将更大）。

“There also seems to be an element of risk aversion in the NZ dollar’s movements. Typically, what we see during times of economic uncertainty is that international investors avoid countries that are perceived to be relatively risky, such as New Zealand, and instead favour larger economies that are seen as relatively safe havens, such as the US, Japan, and Europe. 
“新西兰元的走势似乎也存在避险因素。通常，在经济不确定时期，我们看到的是，国际投资者会避开被认为风险相对较高的国家，如新西兰，转而青睐被视为相对避风港的大型经济体，如美国、日本和欧洲。

“Given current events in the US, I’m not sure I’d be rushing to put money there at the moment, but the argument seems more sound for portfolio movements towards the other large economies.”
“鉴于美国的当前事件，我不确定我目前是否急于将资金投入那里，但投资组合向其他大型经济体的转移似乎更合理。”

The post-‘liberation day’ rout has accelerated with Wall Street now down more than 10 per cent or $US9 trillion in two days, with sharper falls still expected to come.
“解放日”后的暴跌加速了，华尔街目前在两天内下跌了 10% 以上或 9 万亿$US 而且预计还会出现更大的下跌。

The ASX is not immune from the global meltdown, with the ASX priced for a $110 billion sell-off today.
ASX 也不能幸免于全球崩盘，ASX 今天面临价格为 1100 亿澳元的抛售。

来源：ABC

Australia braces for $115billion bloodbath as US tariffs raise fears of global recession
澳大利亚准备迎接 1150 亿澳元的大屠杀，因为美国关税引发了对全球经济衰退的担忧

•  Australian share market faces $115billion plunge
  澳大利亚股市面临 1150 亿澳元的暴跌
• Australian dollar under 60 US cents like early Covid 
  澳元像早期 Covid 一样低于 60 美分

The Australian share market is bracing for a $115billion plunge on Monday as Donald Trump‘s tariffs stir fears of a global recession.
澳大利亚股市周一正准备暴跌 1150 亿澳元，因为唐纳德·特朗普的关税引发了对全球经济衰退的担忧。

Wall Street often sets the tone for the Australian Securities Exchange, with the benchmark S&P500 in New York plummeting by six per cent during Friday trade.
华尔街经常为澳大利亚证券交易所定下基调，纽约基准标准普尔 500 指数在周五的交易中暴跌 6%。

The futures market in Australia is expecting the key S&P/ASX200 to fall by more than 5.11 per cent or 398 points to 7,387.5 during Monday trade, which would be the kind of plunge last seen during the start of Covid five years ago.
澳大利亚期货市场预计关键的 S&P/ASX200 将在周一交易中下跌超过 5.11% 或 398 点至 7,387.5 点，这将是五年前 Covid 开始时最后一次出现的暴跌。

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Should that prediction materialise, more than $115billion would be wiped from Australian share market investments, with technology and mining stocks in particular expected to take a big hit.
如果这一预测成为现实，澳大利亚股市投资将蒸发超过 1150 亿澳元，尤其是科技和矿业股预计将受到重创。

In another bad sign, the Australian dollar has also slipped below 60 US cents for the first time since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, stirring fears of higher inflation as imports become more expensive.
另一个坏兆头是，澳元也自 2020 年 3 月疫情开始以来首次跌破 60 美分，随着进口商品变得更加昂贵，引发了人们对通胀上升的担忧。

Moomoo chief commercial officer and market strategist Michael McCarthy said this was a sign global investment sentiment was under threat. 
moomoo 首席商务官兼市场策略师 Michael McCarthy 表示，这表明全球投资情绪受到威胁。

‘The Aussie dollar, if nothing else, is signalling we are in crisis mode already,’ he told Daily Mail Australia. 
“如果不出意外的话，澳元表明我们已经处于危机模式，”他告诉澳大利亚每日邮报。

‘A lot of people have been talking about buying dips – that’s worked very well for people over the last few years but the Aussie dollar is very clearly saying now is not the time.’
“很多人一直在谈论逢低买入——过去几年这对人们来说效果很好，但澳元非常清楚地表明，现在不是时候。”