题图：今年第三季度的年通胀率降至 2.2%，这对利率的走向来说是个好消息。照片 / Fiona Goodall
ANALYSIS: Heading into the September quarter inflation release, some people had been getting quite excited with their push for the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate 75 basis points at the next meeting on November 27. Were this to happen, it would be an extra positive boost for growth in the economy through 2025 and of course the strength of the upturn now underway in the real estate sector.
【澳纽网编译】分析：在 9 月季度通胀数据发布之前，一些人对推动储备银行在 11 月 27 日的下一次会议上将官方现金利率下调 75 个基点感到非常兴奋。如果发生这种情况，这将对 2025 年的经济增长产生额外的积极推动力，当然，房地产行业目前正在进行的好转的强度也很大。
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So, was the Consumers Price Index outcome enough of a surprise to justify a further acceleration in the pace of policy easing?
那么，消费者物价指数的结果是否足以证明进一步加快政策宽松步伐是合理的呢？
The annual rate of inflation dropped to 2.2% from 3.3%, which is within the Reserve Bank’s 1-3% target band and about average for the past three decades. So far, so good.
年通胀率从 3.3% 降至 2.2%，处于储备银行 1-3% 的目标区间内，大约是过去三十年的平均水平。目前为止，一切都好。
The 2.2% result is also less than the 2.3% expected by the Reserve Bank so there is no problem there.
2.2% 的结果也低于储备银行预期的 2.3%，因此没有问题。
But the difference is small and when we look at some of the details there is no reason for believing that NZ inflation risks falling below 1%.
但差异很小，当我们查看一些细节时，没有理由相信新西兰通胀率有可能降至 1% 以下。
In particular, we need to look at the difference between tradeables and non-tradeables. About 40% of the CPI basket of almost 650 things are traded across the border or have their prices heavily affected by prices overseas. These tradeables prices fell 0.2% in the September quarter and 1.6% for the year. We are importing deflation.
特别是，我们需要研究可交易和非可交易资产之间的区别。在近 650 种 CPI 篮子中，约有 40% 的商品在跨境交易，或者其价格受到海外价格的严重影响。这些可交易商品的价格在 9 月季度下跌了 0.2%，全年下跌了 1.6%。我们正在输入通货紧缩。
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But the more important measure is non-tradeables for which the quarterly price change on average was a rise of 1.3% following a 0.9% increase in the June quarter and 1.7% rise in the March quarter. This measure of what is happening in New Zealand to the prices of things monetary policy can eventually influence rose 4.9% this past year. This is too high and an easy challenge to those who might say the economy is so munted local inflation has died. It has not and it remains too strong.
但更重要的衡量标准是非贸易资产，其季度价格变化平均为 1.3%，继 6 月季度和 3 月季度分别上涨 0.9% 和 1.7% 之后。衡量新西兰货币政策最终可能影响的事物价格的指标在过去一年中上涨了 4.9%。这太高了，对于那些可能会说经济如此混乱以至于当地通货膨胀已经消失的人来说，这是一个简单的挑战。它没有，而且仍然太强大了。
Independent economist Tony Alexander: “Barring some fresh horrible news for the local or world economy, we can still reasonably expect another 50 basis point cut in the Official Cash Rate in November.” Photo / Fiona Goodall
独立经济学家托尼·亚历山大（Tony Alexander）：“除非本地或世界经济出现一些新的可怕消息，否则我们仍然可以合理地预期 11 月官方现金利率将再次下调 50 个基点。照片 / Fiona Goodall
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So, barring some fresh horrible news for the local or world economy, we can still reasonably expect another 50 basis point cut in the Official Cash Rate in November, taking it to 4.25%. After all, in November 2022 the Reserve Bank increased the cash rate by 75 basis points, following the CPI for the September quarter coming in 0.6% higher than it expected. This latest result is only 0.1% lower than included in the most recent Monetary Policy Statement.
因此，除非当地或世界经济出现一些新的可怕消息，否则我们仍然可以合理地预期 11 月官方现金利率将再次下调 50 个基点，使其达到 4.25%。毕竟，在 2022 年 11 月，储备银行将现金利率上调了 75 个基点，此前 9 月季度的 CPI 比预期高出 0.6%。这一最新结果仅比最新的货币政策声明中的内容低 0.1%。
But consider this. When the 50 basis point cut happens one imagines people will use the same terminology that was used recently to describe the October 9. Namely, “slashed” and “massive”.
但请考虑一下。当降息 50 个基点时，人们可以想象人们会使用最近用来描述 10 月 9 日的相同术语。即 “slashed” 和 “massive”。
Those words were wrong last week and they will be wrong again late in November. Since the Official Cash Rate was introduced in April 1999, it has been cut 28 times. Two of these cuts reached 150 basis points, but the average cut has been 46 basis points.
这些话在上周是错误的，11月下旬它们还会是错误的。自 1999 年 4 月推出官方现金汇率以来，该汇率已下调 28 次。其中两次降息达到 150 个基点，但平均降息幅度为 46 个基点。
Therefore, October’s was only average – not massive.
因此，10 月份的降息幅度只是平均水平，而不是很大。
– Tony Alexander is an independent economics commentator. Additional commentary from him can be found at www.tonyalexander.nz
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