• Economy shrinks 1.0% in September quarter, -1.5% on year ago
  9 月季度经济萎缩 1.0%，同比下降 1.5%
• Contraction second in a row meets technical recession definition
  连续第二次收缩符合技术性衰退的定义
• September quarter 2024 revised to a fall of 1.1%, but negative data of 2022/23 disappears
  2024 年 9 月季度修正为下降 1.1%，但 2022/23 年的负面数据消失
• Manufacturing industries slump, construction, business services weaker
  制造业低迷，建筑业、商业服务业走弱
• Agriculture, rental, real estate services higher
  农业、租赁、房地产服务较高

The economy was in a deeper than expected recession in the middle of the year, with widespread contraction across many sectors.
【澳纽网编译】年中，经济陷入比预期更严重的衰退，许多行业普遍收缩。

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Stats NZ data shows gross domestic product, the broad measure of economic growth, fell 1 percent in the three months ended September, to be 1.5 percent lower than a year ago.
新西兰统计局的数据显示，在截至 9 月的三个月里，衡量经济增长的广泛国内生产总值下降了 1%，比一年前下降了 1.5%。

Significant revisions to previous figures resulted in a fall of 1.1 percent in the June quarter, meeting the definition of technical recession.
对之前的数据进行重大修正，导致 6 月季度下降 1.1%，符合技术性衰退的定义。

These were the biggest quarterly falls since late 2021 at the height of the pandemic and lockdowns, but excluding those the six monthly fall was the largest since mid-1991.
这是自 2021 年底疫情和封锁最严重以来最大的季度跌幅，但不包括这些，六个月的跌幅是自 1991 年年中以来的最大跌幅。

However, previous negative readings for 2022/23 have largely disappeared.
然而，之前 2022/23 年的负面读数已基本消失。

Stats NZ said extra data had shown a different performance of the economy.
新西兰统计局表示，额外的数据显示了不同的经济表现。

“The data incorporated this year shows stronger growth over the last year, followed by two significant falls in the latest quarters,” spokesperson Jason Attewell said.
“今年纳入的数据显示，去年增长强劲，随后最近几个季度出现了两次大幅下降，”发言人 Jason Attewell 说。

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Short sharp recession  短暂的急剧衰退

The big falls in the June and September quarters were the biggest quarterly drops since late 2021 at the height of the pandemic and lockdowns.
6 月和 9 月季度的大幅下跌是自 2021 年底疫情和封锁最严重期间以来最大的季度跌幅。

But excluding those the six-monthly fall was the largest since mid-1991.
但不包括这些，六个月的降幅是自 1991 年年中以来的最大降幅。

The main contributors to the latest contraction were a 2.6 percent fall in manufacturing, 3.7 percent in electricity and gas, 2.8 percent drop in construction, and 1.1 percent decline in retail.
最近一次收缩的主要因素是制造业下降 2.6%，电力和天然气下降 3.7%，建筑业下降 2.8%，零售业下降 1.1%。

The fall in manufacturing in part reflected the energy crunch in mid-winter which forced some businesses to reduce or halt production.
制造业的下降在一定程度上反映了隆冬的能源紧缩，这迫使一些企业减少或停止生产。

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The growth spots were agriculture on the back of the strong dairy production, information and technology, and rental and real estate industries农业、信息和技术以及租赁和房地产业因乳制品生产强劲而成为增长点。

Individual shares of the economy shrank again, by 1.2 percent during the quarter, the eighth consecutive quarterly fall.
本季度个体经济份额再次萎缩，下降了 1.2%，这是连续第八个季度下降。

The latest GDP reading is expected to be the low point of the recent economic cycle, with falling interest rates expected to give a spark to household spending and business investment.
最新的 GDP 数据预计将是近期经济周期的低点，预计利率下降将激发家庭支出和商业投资。

Forecasts are for tepid but positive growth from the end of this year picking up pace in the second half of next year to average 2-3 percent over the next few years.
据预测，从今年年底开始，经济将不温不火但呈正增长，明年下半年将加快步伐，未来几年平均增长 2-3%。

New Zealand’s economic activity was the weakest of all its major trading partners.
新西兰的经济活动是其所有主要贸易伙伴中最弱的。

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Economy was in ‘extremely poor health’
经济处于“极度糟糕的健康状况”

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the GDP report was “markedly different to expectations”.
西太平洋银行高级经济学家迈克尔·戈登 （Michael Gordon） 表示，GDP 报告“与预期明显不同”。

“Relative to our forecast, the biggest downward surprises were in government and healthcare,” Gordon said.
“相对于我们的预测，最大的下行意外是政府和医疗保健，”Gordon 说。

“Personnel spending is a key indicator of activity for these sectors, however Stats NZ notes that redundancy payments have been inflating these measures recently and have made adjustments for them.”
“人员支出是这些行业活动的一个关键指标，但 Stats NZ 注意到，最近裁员支出抬高了这些指标，因此对其进行了调整”。

Gordon said the downward revision to the June quarter was partly due to an update of seasonal adjustments, but could not be attributed to any given sectors, and would need “further investigation”.
Gordon 表示，对 6 月季度的下调部分是由于季节性调整的更新，但不能归因于任何特定行业，需要“进一步调查”。

ASB senior economist Kim Mundy said the goods-producing sector was the biggest drag in the third quarter, while construction activity fell for the fifth straight quarter amid a decline in residential building.
ASB 高级经济学家 Kim Mundy 表示，商品生产部门是第三季度最大的拖累，而由于住宅建筑下降，建筑活动连续第五个季度下降。

“Today’s data highlight that the NZ economy was in extremely poor health during the middle of the year. And the data reinforces that it was vital that the RBNZ started to take its foot off the brake as we had noted.”
“今天的数据凸显了新西兰经济在今年年中的极度不景气。这些数据进一步说明，新西兰央行必须如我们所指出的那样，开始松开刹车。

来源：RNZ

分类： 澳纽资讯

(即时多来源) 新西兰英语新闻 New Zealand English News

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