2023 年选举:民意调查 – 工党组建政府的可能性为 0.1%,这是自大萧条以来主要执政党的最差结果

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【澳纽网编译】根据《NZ Herald》的民意调查,国家党党魁克里斯托弗·卢克森(Christopher Luxon)看起来将成为新西兰下一任总理。

这将是新西兰 自 1990 年以来首次在一年内出现三位总理,而工党似乎将在 MMP 时代执政后创下主要政党之一的最差结果。对于一个主要政党来说,这将是自近一个世纪前的大萧条以来执政以来最糟糕的结果。

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民意调查根据其他民意调查的结果模拟选举结果。然后,它会将这些结果报告为选举的可能结果,无论是在本周末举行还是在 10 月 14 日投票日举行。

如果选举在本周末举行,国家党、行动党和新西兰优先党将有 99.4% 的机会组建政府,如果选举在投票日举行,则这一比例略降至 98%。

现在可能的选举联盟

根据本周六选举的 8000 次模拟,分配给潜在联盟的可用席位数量。垂直线表示组建政府所需的 61 个席位门槛。

如果本周末举行选举,国家党和行动党有51.5%的机会组建政府,实际投票日则降至56.5%。

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工党的胜算继续缩小。如果本周末举行选举,工党、绿党和毛利人组成的政府有 0.1% 的可能性组建政府。如果选举在投票日举行,这一几率会增加到 0.4%。

如果选举在本周末或其他日期举行,工党和绿党在没有毛利人的情况下越过界限的可能性为 0%。他们唯一的机会是温斯顿·彼得斯和克里斯·希普金斯推翻彼此的不合作。工党-绿党-毛利党-新西兰第一联盟有 26.8% 的机会在选举日越过界限。

Labour and the Greens have 0 per cent chance of getting over the line without Te Pāti Māori if the election were held this weekend, or on another date. Their only chance is for Winston Peters and Chris Hipkins to reverse their respective ruling out of one another. Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori-NZ First coalition have a 26.8 per cent chance of being able to get over the line on election day.

选举之夜可能组成的联盟

基于 8000 个模拟选举之夜(10 月 14 日)的潜在联盟可用席位数量的分布。垂直线表示组建政府所需的 61 个席位门槛。


民意调查显示,工党的支持率为 27.5%。国家党以 36.5% 领先近 10 个百分点。绿党的支持率为 12%,行动党为 10.7%。NZ First 的支持率为 5%,Te Pāti Māori 为 2.9%,TOP 为 2.2%,

自大萧条以来把持政府一段时间后,工党似乎将退出政府,成为最不受欢迎的主要政党。

Labour looks set to crash out of Government being the least popular major party after a stint in Government since the Great Depression.

1931 年,戈登·科茨领导的改革党仅赢得 26.6% 的选票。

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这是在与联合党的几个月联盟之后,该联盟发生在新西兰历史上最混乱的国会任期之一。大萧条的爆发和工党的崛起导致这两个政党最终合并成为现代的国家党。

It was in a months-old alliance with the United Party after one of the most chaotic parliamentary terms in New Zealand’s history. The collapse of both in the wake of the Great Depression and the rise of Labour saw the parties eventually merge to become the modern National Party.

更正:本文的早期版本基于错误处理新西兰优先党超过 5% 阈值的模型版本。一些关于不同联盟组织能够组建政府的可能性的报道是不正确的。最重要的是,本文的早期版本高估了国家党和行动党单独执政的可能性。修正后的模型预测,在本周末举行的选举中,国家党和行动党单独执政的可能性为 51.5%。

2017 年、2020 年和 2023 年选举的投票意向

垂直线表示选举,点表示投票结果。阴影区域表示一方​​的估计投票意图。
此图表显示了政党的民意调查结果与模型预测的政党选票之间的关系。估计政党将赢得的席位数量的图表旨在比较选举结果。

来源:NZ Herald

Ken Chen Photography

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