Wholesale interest rates have “collapsed” – but retail home loan rates are likely to follow at a slower pace.
批发利率已经“崩溃”，但零售住房贷款利率可能会以较慢的速度跟进。
Kiwibank economists have pointed out that the two-year swap rate hit a low of 4.19 percent last week, the lowest it had traded in just under two years and well below the recent peak of more than 5.2 percent.
【澳纽网编译】Kiwibank经济学家指出，两年期掉期利率上周触及4.19%的低点，为近两年来的最低水平，远低于近期超过5.2%的峰值。
That is being driven by a market expectation that the Reserve Bank is planning cuts to the official cash rate (OCR) much quickly than it has previously signalled.
这是由市场预期推动的，即储备银行计划下调官方现金利率（OCR）的速度比之前发出的信号要快得多。
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“Market traders are now pricing 15bps [basis points] of cuts in August,” Kiwibank’s economists said.
“市场交易员现在预计8月份将降息15个基点，”Kiwibank的经济学家表示。
“That’s a 60 percent chance of a rate cut in just a couple weeks’ time. And looking ahead, traders have priced in just over 75bps of cuts by November. That’s a whopping three cuts.”
“在短短几周内降息的可能性为60%。展望未来，交易员预计到11月降息将略高于75个基点。这是一个惊人的三次削减。
They said it made sense in the context of weaker economic data – but it was unlikely that the Reserve Bank would be willing to change its tone and cut so quickly.
他们表示，在经济数据疲软的背景下，这是有道理的，但储备银行不太可能愿意改变其基调并如此迅速地降息。
If it wanted to see inflation back within its 1 percent to 3 percent target band, November would be the earlier rate cuts could happen, they said.
他们表示，如果希望看到通胀率回到1%至3%的目标区间内，那么11月将是可能更早降息的时间。
ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said he could not argue “at all” with the direction that wholesale markets were moving, although his team also still expected rate cuts not to begin until November.
ASB高级经济学家Chris Tennent-Brown表示，他无法与批发市场的走向“完全”争论，尽管他的团队也预计降息要到11月才会开始。
“The risk is always at times like this once you get convinced that rate cuts are coming you think why not now and why not go heaps?”
“风险总是在这样的时候，一旦你确信降息即将到来，你就会想为什么不现在，为什么不大刀阔斧？”
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Once cuts began, it was unlikely that there would be a “straight line all the way to lower”, he said.
他说，一旦开始减息，就不太可能出现“一路下降的直线”。
“We think every meeting is live and we have swung around quite a bit to price in a lot of action over the next year or so – people are fixing for quite short terms, which makes sense as a strategy.”
“我们认为每次会议都是现场的，我们已经进行了相当多的调整，以便在未来一年左右的时间里采取很多行动——人们在相当短的时间内固定下来，作为一种策略是有道理的。”
Retail rates would not move markedly lower until the official cash rate shifted, he said.
他说，在官方现金利率发生变化之前，零售利率不会明显下降。
“I think we’ll see some movement later this year then more steadily though the course of next year.”
“我认为我们将在今年晚些时候看到一些进展，然后在明年的过程中更加稳定。
But he said the five-year rate was probably not likely to move a lot, because it was already down by about a full percentage point and had not risen as much as some of the other rates to begin with.
但他表示，五年期利率不太可能有太大变化，因为它已经下降了大约整整一个百分点，而且没有像其他一些利率那样上升。
Kerr said the average borrower did not need to worry about what was happening on wholesale markets.
克尔说，普通借款人不需要担心批发市场上发生的事情。
A lot of the movement was driven by foreign hedge funds placing “very large bets” that the Reserve Bank was going to cut.
很大程度上，这一动向是由外国对冲基金下“非常大的赌注”推动的，他们认为储备银行将要削减开支。
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“When hedge funds come in and place large bets, there’s not a lot on the other side, so the moves have been exaggerated.”
“当对冲基金进来并下大赌注时，对方并没有很多，所以这些举动被夸大了。
He said he could not imagine the Reserve Bank cutting in August given it was contemplating an increase in May.
他说，鉴于储备银行考虑在 5 月份加息，他无法想象储备银行会在 8 月份降息。
Most households and businesses were probably sticking to the mantra of “survive until 2025” – knowing that interest rate cuts were very likely on the horizon, he said.
他说，大多数家庭和企业可能都坚持“生存到2025年”的口号——因为他们知道降息很可能即将到来。
“For me, it’s not so much the timing as the magnitude, how many cuts are they likely to deliver? We’re saying they could easily deliver 200 [bps].”
“对我来说，与其说是时机，不如说是幅度，他们可能会削减多少次？我们说他们可以轻松实现 200 [bps]。
来源：RNZ
分类： 澳纽资讯
(即时多来源) 新西兰英语新闻 New Zealand English News
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