ANALYSIS: New data out last week showed that the annual rate of inflation in the second quarter of this year fell to 3.3%, from 4% in the previous quarter and a post-Covid peak of 7.3% two years ago.
【澳纽网编译】分析：上周公布的新数据显示，今年第二季度的年通胀率从上一季度的4%和两年前7.3%的疫情后峰值降至3.3%。

That’s good news for Kiwis who have been squeezed by the cost of living crisis and successive rises in interest rates. The fact that the second quarter inflation results were better than the Reserve Bank had expected will fuel calls for a few quick interest rate cuts.
这对新西兰人来说是个好消息，他们受到生活成本危机和利率连续上升的挤压。第二季度通胀结果好于储备银行的预期，这一事实将推动人们迅速降息的呼声。

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Anticipation of a cut to the Official Cash Rate is already at elevated levels. Wholesale interest rates – a good proxy for how much it costs banks to lend you money for a mortgage – plunged after the Reserve Bank’s encouraging OCR announcement at the start of the month.
对官方现金利率下调的预期已经处于高位。批发利率——一个很好的指标，可以反映银行借给你抵押贷款的成本——在储备银行本月初发布令人鼓舞的OCR公告后暴跌。

The one-year swap rate has dropped to its lowest point since October 2022, and the major banks are passing on the savings. ANZ cut its one-year fixed rate to 6.85% while Westpac cut its one-year rate to 6.89% – its fourth cut to the one-year rate since February.
一年期掉期利率已降至2022年10月以来的最低点，各大银行正在将节省下来的钱转嫁出去。澳新银行将一年期固定利率下调至6.85%，而西太平洋银行将一年期利率下调至6.89%，这是自2月以来第四次下调一年期利率。

Lower rates are available when you eventually sign on the dotted line, with some mortgage brokers getting 6.72% for their clients. That’s a weekly saving of $52 on a $500,000 mortgage compared to the peak interest rates at the start of the year.
当您最终在虚线上签名时，可以获得更低的利率，一些抵押贷款经纪人为他们的客户获得 6.72%。与年初的峰值利率相比，500,000 纽币的抵押贷款每周可节省 52 纽币。

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Further rate relief is on the cards, but how quickly will rates tumble?
进一步的利率缓解即将到来，但利率会以多快的速度下降？

ANZ’s latest forecasts suggest that the one-year fixed rate could drop to 5.7% by June 2025.
澳新银行的最新预测显示，到2025年6月，一年期固定利率可能降至5.7%。

As we’ve seen this week, we don’t need an OCR cut for mortgage interest rates to start coming down. The mere expectation of near-term OCR cuts is enough to start the decline.
正如我们本周所看到的，我们不需要 OCR 下调来抵押贷款利率开始下降。仅仅对近期OCR削减的预期就足以开始下跌。

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However, for ANZ’s forecast to come true, the Reserve Bank will have to start cutting sooner rather than later. There are three more OCR announcements this year, and most economists are picking the last one, on November 27, as the date of the first cut.
然而，为了让澳新银行的预测成真，澳新银行将不得不尽早开始降息。今年还有三次OCR公告，大多数经济学家选择最后一次，即11月27日，作为第一次下调的日期。

Opes Partners resident economist Ed McKnight: “We can’t borrow like it’s 2021, when interest rates had a ‘two’ or a ‘three’ in front of them.” Photo / Fiona Goodall
Opes Partners常驻经济学家Ed McKnight：“我们不能像2021年那样借款，当时利率面前有一个’二’或’三’。摄影/菲奥娜·古道尔

The date of the first cut depends on inflation. The reason the Reserve Bank raised interest rates was runaway inflation post-Covid. And while the latest results are close to the Reserve Bank’s target range of 1-3%, the Reserve Bank is concerned about “sticky inflation”.
第一次降息的日期取决于通货膨胀。储备银行提高利率的原因是 Covid 后失控的通货膨胀。虽然最新结果接近储备银行1-3%的目标区间，但储备银行对“粘性通胀”感到担忧。

Last month, the Reserve Bank’s chief economist Paul Conway warned that there were reasons “to think that inflation may be more persistent than in our current projections in the near term. In other words, more ‘sticky’. Most notably, domestic, or non-tradables inflation, and services sector inflation have held up more than initially projected”.
上个月，澳大利亚储备银行首席经济学家保罗·康威（Paul Conway）警告说，有理由“认为短期内通胀可能比我们目前的预测更持久。换句话说，更“粘性”。最值得注意的是，国内或非贸易品通胀以及服务业通胀的支撑程度超过了最初的预期。

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But he also added that there were “also some reasons to think that inflation could fall more quickly than expected over the medium term. For example, increasing spare capacity in product and labour markets could translate into lower inflation more quickly than currently expected”.
但他也补充说，“也有一些理由认为，从中期来看，通胀的下降速度可能比预期的要快。例如，增加产品和劳动力市场的闲置产能可能会比目前预期的更快地转化为更低的通货膨胀。

Most economists expect headline inflation will return to the Reserve Bank’s target band by September, with third quarter inflation figures, released on October 17, likely to prove crucial.
大多数经济学家预计，总体通胀率将在9月份回到储备银行的目标区间，10月17日公布的第三季度通胀数据可能至关重要。

This is why you can expect the Reserve Bank to be cautious. We can’t borrow like it’s 2021, when interest rates had a “two” or a “three” in front of them. Those days may never come back. But within a year or two, interest rates should have a “five” in front of them and those excruciatingly high interest rates of the last two years could be a distant memory.
这就是为什么你可以预期储备银行会保持谨慎。我们不能像 2021 年那样借款，当时利率前面数字的是“二”或“三”。那些日子可能再也回不来了。但在一两年内，利率应该有一个“五”在它们面前，而过去两年那些令人难以忍受的高利率可能成为遥远的记忆。

– Ed McKnight is the resident economist at property investment company Opes Partners
– 埃德·麦克奈特（Ed McKnight）是房地产投资公司Opes Partners的常驻经济学家

分类： 澳纽资讯

(即时多来源) 新西兰英语新闻 New Zealand English News

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