The job market deteriorated in the June quarter, with unemployment rising to 4.6%.
【澳纽网编译】就业市场在 6 月季度恶化，失业率上升至 4.6%。

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The rise was smaller than the consensus forecast of 4.7% and initial market reaction suggested an Official Cash Rate cut next week was now less likely.
这一增幅低于市场普遍预测的4.7%，初步市场反应表明，下周官方下调现金利率的可能性现在较小。

The June quarter unemployment rate was up from 4.4% in the March quarter but in line with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forecast of 4.6%.
6月季度失业率高于3月季度的4.4%，但与新西兰储备银行预测的4.6%一致。

Wage growth remained strongest in the public sector, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.
根据新西兰统计局今天公布的数据，公共部门的工资增长仍然最强劲。

But almost half the annual growth in unemployment and under-utilisation came from young people.
但是，失业率和利用不足的年增长率中，有近一半来自年轻人。

Economists had expected a rise in the official unemployment rate, with most picking it to land at 4.7%.
经济学家此前预计官方失业率将上升，大多数人认为失业率将达到4.7%。

Over the past year, unemployment rose by 33,000 to 143,000.
在过去的一年里，失业人数增加了33,000人，达到143,000人。

“Unemployment has been increasing since 2022, leaving the current quarter’s unemployment rate the highest since March 2021,” Stats NZ labour market manager Deb Brunning said today.
“自 2022 年以来，失业率一直在上升，本季度的失业率为 2021 年 3 月以来的最高水平，”新西兰统计局劳动力市场经理 Deb Brunning 今天表示。

”Recent rises in unemployment align with other economic indicators, including an increasing number of benefit recipients, a decreasing number of job vacancies, and declining GDP (gross domestic product) per capita.”
“最近失业率的上升与其他经济指标相一致，包括福利领取者人数增加，职位空缺数量减少以及人均GDP（国内生产总值）下降。”

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Annually, unemployment for people aged 15-24 years rose 14,400 and under-utilisation rose by 29,300, not seasonally adjusted.
每年，15-24岁人口的失业率增加了14,400人，利用不足的人数增加了29,300人，这未经过季节性调整。

In April, May and June this year, compared with the June 2023 quarter, unemployment rates for people aged 15-19 were 20.7%, up from 15.1%.
今年4月、5月和6月，与2023年6月季度相比，15-19岁人口的失业率为20.7%，高于15.1%。

And for those aged 20-24, it was 8%, up from 5.8% a year earlier.
对于20-24岁的人，这一比例为8%，高于一年前的5.8%。

Wages rise 工资上涨

Wages kept rising, up 4.3% in the year to June 30, and up 1.2% compared to the March quarter.
工资持续上涨，截至 6 月 30 日的一年中上涨 4.3%，与 3 月季度相比上涨 1.2%。

For comparison, the Consumers Price Index rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 3.3% in the year to June 30.
相比之下，截至6月30日的一年中，消费者物价指数按季上升0.4%，上升3.3%。

Average weekly earnings (including overtime) for full-time equivalent employees (FTEs) increased to $1,612.
全职等效员工 （FTE） 的平均每周收入（包括加班费）增加到 1,612 纽币。

Average ordinary time hourly earnings increased to $41.52, Stats NZ said.
新西兰统计局表示，平均平时时薪增至41.52纽币。

Labour cost index wage inflation in the public sector rose to a series high of 6.9% annually.
劳动力成本指数：公共部门的工资通胀率升至每年6.9%的系列高位。

And public sector average ordinary time hourly earnings in the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) increased 7.9% to $49.56.
在季度就业调查（QES）中，公共部门的平均正常时间时薪增长了7.9%，至49.56纽币。

“The effects of pay increases for some health workers, along with school therapists and early-childhood education staff, have all come through in public sector wage growth this quarter, in addition to other settlements seen over the year,” Brunning said.
布伦恩说：“一些卫生工作者、学校治疗师和幼儿教育工作人员加薪的影响都体现在本季度的公共部门工资增长中，此外还有一年中出现的其他结算。

Market reacts 市场反应

The New Zealand dollar rallied by just under half a US cent on the news.
受此消息影响，新西兰元上涨了近半美分。

And wholesale interest rate markets are expected to tone down expectations of an August 14 rate cut from the Reserve Bank.
预计批发利率市场将降低对储备银行8月14日降息的预期。

”The number was not as bad as was feared,” Westpac market strategist Imre Speizer said.
“这个数字并不像人们担心的那么糟糕，”西太平洋银行市场策略师Imre Speizer表示。

”Unemployment rose, but by less than was expected,” he said.
“失业率上升，但幅度低于预期，”他说。

”That means that interest rates, which had been pricing in an August rate cut, now have to rise to undo some of that rate-cut pricing,” he said.
“这意味着，一直为8月份降息定价的利率现在必须上升，以抵消部分降息定价，”他说。

”It indicates the economy is not as bad as feared, which is positive for the Kiwi,” he said.
“这表明经济并不像人们担心的那么糟糕，这对新西兰人来说是积极的，”他说。

The Kiwi traded up to US59.92c from US59.53c just before the job market data release.
纽元从就业市场数据公布前的59.53美分升至59.92美分。

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Rate cuts ahead? 未来降息？

Today’s labour market news is the last major data set before the Reserve Bank makes its August interest rate call next Wednesday.
今天的劳动力市场新闻是澳大利亚储备银行下周三发布8月份利率电话会议之前的最后一个主要数据。

“The sharp drop-off in job advertising, extremely weak business sentiment, and gloomy headlines suggest … employment levels will contract for the second consecutive quarter,” ASB senior economist Mark Smith said earlier today.
“招聘广告的急剧下降、极度疲软的商业情绪和悲观的头条新闻表明……就业水平将连续第二个季度收缩，“ASB高级经济学家马克史密斯今天早些时候表示。

“The labour market is clearly softening, with higher-frequency indicators pointing to outright job losses in recent months,” Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said ahead of the Stats NZ release.
“劳动力市场显然正在疲软，近几个月来，更频繁的指标指向彻底失业，”西太平洋银行高级经济学家迈克尔戈登在新西兰统计局发布前表示。

“However, the slowdown doesn’t appear to be outside the bounds of what the Reserve Bank was looking for.”
“然而，经济放缓似乎并没有超出储备银行所寻求的界限。

A range of indicators showed the labour shortages that plagued employers in previous years were now a distant memory, he said.
他说，一系列指标显示，前几年困扰雇主的劳动力短缺现在已成为遥远的记忆。

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“That’s due to a combination of a surge of migrant workers to fill the gaps once the border was reopened, and a drop in demand for new workers as the economy has cooled off.
“这是由于边境重新开放后，移民工人激增以填补缺口，以及随着经济降温，对新工人的需求下降。

“Job advertisements are now below pre-Covid levels, businesses report that labour is no longer hard to find, and our Employment Confidence Index shows that households are finding job opportunities much harder to come by.”
“招聘广告现在低于新冠疫情前的水平，企业报告说劳动力不再难找，我们的就业信心指数显示，家庭正在寻找工作机会的机会。”

Despite that downturn, there was little likelihood that the data would be bad enough to justify market expectations for rate cuts in August, economists said.
经济学家表示，尽管经济低迷，但数据糟糕到足以证明市场对8月份降息预期的可能性很小。

“This is the last big piece of data ahead of the August MPS, where the market is currently pricing more than a 65% chance of a cut,” ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said.
澳新银行首席经济学家Sharon Zollner表示：“这是8月MPS公布前的最后一条重要数据，市场目前预计降息的可能性超过65%。

“We certainly agree that the Q2 labour market data will be important for the RBNZ’s calibrations, but if the details are close to our (and the RBNZ’s) expectations, we don’t think it’s a smoking gun for the imminent rates cut that the market is putting relatively high odds on.
“我们当然同意，第二季度劳动力市场数据对于新西兰联储的校准非常重要，但如果细节接近我们（和新西兰联储）的预期，我们认为这并不是市场对即将降息的有利时机。

“All that said, should recent weakness in the broad range of forward indicators persist over coming months, that, combined with confirmation from the Q2 labour market data that momentum is indeed softening, would see the odds of the cutting cycle kicking off as early as October increase,” Zollner added.
“综上所述，如果近期广泛的前瞻性指标持续疲软，再加上第二季度劳动力市场数据证实势头确实在减弱，那么最早在10月份开始降息周期的可能性将会增加，”Zollner补充道。

“But for now, given what we’ve seen so far, we think November remains the likeliest timing for the beginning of the cutting cycle.”
“但就目前而言，鉴于我们目前所看到的情况，我们认为11月仍然是削减周期开始的最可能时机。”

来源：NZ Herald

分类： 澳纽资讯

(即时多来源) 新西兰英语新闻 New Zealand English News

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