最新模型显示,即使达到75% 的疫苗接种率,一年仍有 7000 人死亡

新冠疫情 编辑精选

【澳纽网综合编译】

Modelling suggests 7000 deaths in a year even with 75 per cent of country jabbed

模型显示,即使 国家达到75% 的疫苗接种率,一年也有 7000 人死亡

New modelling prepared for the Government by Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 Covid-19 deaths a year even with a high proportion of the population jabbed.

肖恩·亨迪(Shaun Hendy) 为政府准备的新模型表明,即使有很高比例的人接种疫苗,新西兰每年也可能有多达 7000 人死于 Covid-19。



The modelling from Te Punaha Matatini suggests that if 80 per cent of the 5+ population was fully vaccinated – around 75 per cent of the entire country – Covid-19 would still cause a serious death toll without other restrictions.

Te Punaha Matatini 的模型表明,如果 5 岁以上人口中有 80% 接种了疫苗——约占全国的 75%——没有其他限制的话,Covid-19 仍然会造成严重的死亡人数,。

Hendy projects it would cause 60,000 hospitalisations and 7000 deaths over a one-year period.

亨迪预计它将在一年内导致 60,000 人住院和 7000 人死亡。

If 90 per cent of the 5+ population was reached however – around 85 per cent of the full population – then deaths would drop to around 50 over a year.

然而,如果达到 5 岁以上人口的 90%——大约总人口的 85%——那么一年内死亡人数将下降到 50 人左右。

This would make ending restrictions very difficult without very-high vaccination rates, should the Delta outbreak not be stamped out in Auckland.

如果Delta疫情没有在奥克兰被扑灭, 同时如果没有非常高的疫苗接种率,这将使结束封锁变得非常困难,

A mass vaccination clinic in Nelson.
BRADEN FASTIER/STUFF
A mass vaccination clinic in Nelson. 纳尔逊的一家大规模疫苗接种诊所。

下面是关于肖恩·亨迪(Shaun Hendy)教授在今天下午1点通过视频在疫情简报会上的发言要点。

Now to Professor Shaun Hendy who is virtually at the press conference to talk through the modelling.

现在请肖恩·亨迪教授发言,他实际上是用视频连线在新闻发布会上谈论建模。

The report they released in June was at the same time Delta was spreading. This new modelling is an updated version.
他们在 6 月份发布报告时刚好 Delta 正在传播。 这个新模型是一个更新版本。

It takes into account we’re on track to vaccinate 80 per cent of those over 12.
考虑到我们有望为 12 岁以上人群中的 80% 接种疫苗。



The rate of uptake suggests we could approach well over 90 per cent in the coming months.
目前的接种率表明,在未来几个月内,我们可能会接近 90% 以上。

Hendy emphasised this is just a modelling study. It’s incorporated the best data from overseas, but there are still many uncertainties.

亨迪强调这只是一项建模研究。 它整合了海外最好的数据,但仍然存在很多不确定性。


The best outcome for vaccinating 90 per cent or more means herd immunity. Outbreaks could “fizzle out” on their own.
接种 90% 或更多疫苗的最佳结果意味着群体免疫。 爆发可能会自行“消失”。

If the R0 is kept below 1, that will be good for us.
如果 R0 保持在 1 以下,那将对我们有好处。

Because Delta is so transmissible, population immunity is probably out of reach by vaccination alone.
由于 Delta 的传染性很强,因此仅靠接种疫苗可能无法达到群体免疫。

This modelling looked at using a suite of moderate public health measures – masks, rapid tests, ventilation etc.
该模型着眼于使用一套适度的公共卫生措施——口罩、快速检测、通风等。

If 90 per cent of the 5+ population was reached – around 85 per cent of the full population – then deaths would drop to around 50 over a year.

如果达到 5 岁以上人口的 90%——约占总人口的 85%——那么一年内死亡人数将下降到 50 人左右。

If 80 per cent of the 5+ population was fully vaccinated – around 75 per cent of the entire country – Covid-19 would still cause a serious death toll without other restrictions.
如果 5 岁以上人口中有 80% 接种了疫苗——约占整个国家的 75%——Covid-19 仍然会在没有其他限制的情况下造成严重的死亡人数。

We’d still need lockdowns.
我们仍然需要封锁。

Hendy said there’s no “magic threshold” for vaccination coverage, but the higher coverage the fewer restrictions we’ll need in coming years.
亨迪说,疫苗接种覆盖率没有“神奇的门槛”,但覆盖率越高,未来几年我们需要的限制就越少。

“We need every community to be well covered by vaccination. For life to go back to normal, we really can’t leave anyone behind,” Hendy said.

“我们需要每个社区都得到很好的疫苗接种。为了让生活恢复正常,我们真的不能让任何人掉队,”亨迪说。



 

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