Most borrowers are opting for short-term fixes, which will mean the effect of falling interest rates would be felt relatively quickly, property economist Kelvin Davidson says. Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon
房地产经济学家 Kelvin Davidson 表示，大多数借款人都选择短期固定利率，这意味着利率下降的影响会相对较快地感受到。 照片：RNZ / Nate McKinnon

Banks prepare for home loans going bad

Property economist Kelvin Davidson said the percentage of “non-performing” loans, which are at least 90 days overdue or considered impaired, had lifted to 0.6 percent of all mortgages.
房地产经济学家凯尔文·戴维森 （Kelvin Davidson） 表示，“不良”贷款（至少逾期 90 天或被认为受损）的百分比已上升到所有抵押贷款的 0.6%。

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That was the highest level in a decade.
这是十年来的最高水平。

Davidson said while it was only about half the rate of 2009 and 2010, it was a concern and could continue to rise because unemployment was increasing.
戴维森说，虽然失业率只有 2009 年和 2010 年的一半左右，但这是一个令人担忧的问题，并且由于失业率正在上升，可能会继续上升。

“Based on Reserve Bank figures, the trading banks themselves recently seem to have been raising provisions for possible future ‘bad’ housing loans, to the point where these allowances are now about 40 percent above even the largest Covid-era figure.
“根据储备银行的数据，贸易银行本身最近似乎一直在提高对未来可能出现的’不良’住房贷款的准备金，以至于这些准备金现在甚至比Covid时代的最大数字高出约 40%。

“Mortgage stress will remain a factor to watch for some time to come yet and is another reason to be cautious about the size and strength of any upturn in house sales and prices as we head into 2025.”
“抵押贷款压力仍将是未来一段时间值得关注的一个因素，这也是我们进入 2025 年时对房屋销售和价格任何上涨的规模和强度持谨慎态度的另一个原因。”

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He said while the numbers were not “off the charts” they were definitely rising.
他说，虽然这些数字并没有“超出图表”，但它们肯定在上升。

They tended to be a lagging indicator, he said, because borrowers did everything they could to avoid not paying their loans.
他说，它们往往是一个滞后指标，因为借款人尽其所能避免不偿还贷款。

He said most borrowers were opting for short fixes, which would mean the effect of falling interest rates would be felt relatively quickly.
他说，大多数借款人都选择了短期固定利率，这意味着利率下降的影响会相对较快地感受到。

“In December last year, for example, 36 percent of new loans (by value) were taken out for a fixed term of up to 12 months.
“例如，去年 12 月，36% 的新贷款（按价值计算）是固定期限长达 12 个月的贷款。

“But that had spiked to 56 percent by February and reached a new record high of 68 percent in August – driven by an especially large surge in six-month activity, off the back of that first OCR cut.
“但到 2 月，这一比例已飙升至 56%，并在 8 月创下 68% 的历史新高——这是由于在首次 OCR 下调之后，固定期限六个月的贷款特别大幅激增。

“Our analysis suggests that existing borrowers who are rolling over their loans onto a new fixed rate will have been behaving in a very similar way to new borrowers, and indeed the Reserve Bank’s figures show that the share of existing loans that are currently fixed but due to change mortgage rates within the next 12 months has now risen back to around 66 percent – matching a peak previously seen in the first half of 2021… Some of that stock growth will have also come from all of those recent new borrowers who have been fixing short too.”
“我们的分析表明，将贷款展期至新固定利率的现有借款人的行为方式与新借款人非常相似，事实上，储备银行的数据显示，目前固定但将在未来 12 个月内改变抵押贷款利率的现有贷款比例现已回升至约 66%–与 2021 年上半年的峰值相当…… 其中一些存量增长也将来自于近期所有那些固定利率较低的新借款人”。

He said, overall, those short mid-2021 fixes were probably not the best decision.
他说，总的来说，那些短暂的 2021 年年中修复可能不是最好的决定。

A five-year rate was on average 4 percent in May 2021, according to Reserve Bank data.
根据储备银行的数据，2021 年 5 月的五年期利率平均为 4%。

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Anyone who fixed then could still have 18 months on what would look like “ultra low rates” now, he said.
他说，任何当时固定利率的人仍然可以有 18 个月的时间享受现在看起来“超低利率”的利率。

“On the other hand, one can understand why borrowers are now choosing to take shorter fixed periods in the hope they will benefit from a series of loan renewals in the coming year or two at ever-lower rates.”
“另一方面，人们可以理解为什么借款人现在选择更短的固定期限，希望他们能在未来一两年内以更低的利率从一系列贷款续贷中受益。”

He said, for the first time since mid 2021, people who had fixed for a year were now rolling off on to lower interest rates.
他说，自 2021 年年中以来，固定利率一年的人现在首次转向降低利率。

“Much like it wasn’t necessarily an easy decision to decide on the ‘best’ fixed rate back in mid-2021 – although it’s clearer in hindsight what should have happened, it’s not necessarily straight-forward now either.
“就像在 2021 年年中决定’最佳’固定利率不一定是一个容易的决定一样——尽管事后看来应该发生的事情更清楚，但现在也不一定是直截了当的。”

“After all, the very short-term rates (such as six months at 6.7 percent) remain quite a bit higher than the slightly longer terms (12 months at 6.2 percent) – so for the strategy of taking two consecutive six-month fixes to pay off, that rate basically needs to drop to 5.7 percent or less by April next year.
“毕竟，非常短期的利率（例如 6 个月为 6.7%）仍然比稍长的期限（12 个月为 6.2%）高出不少——因此，对于连续两个 6 个月固定利率来偿还的策略，该利率基本上需要在明年 4 月之前降至 5.7% 或更低。

“Could that happen? Nothing’s out of the question, especially given the continued weakness of the economy and an emerging risk that inflation falls much more sharply than has been anticipated; which would likely see the OCR also fall more rapidly, alongside extra downward pressure on mortgage rates.
“那会发生吗？没有什么是不可能的，特别是考虑到经济的持续疲软以及通胀下降幅度远超预期的新风险;这可能会导致 OCR 也更快地下降，同时抵押贷款利率面临额外的下行压力。

“But at the same time, there could also be a sense at the moment that some of the potential future falls in the OCR have already been captured by current mortgage rates, meaning that the scope for more declines from here, regardless of the fixed term, could be a bit slower/smaller than what we’ve seen to date.
“但与此同时，目前也可能有一种感觉，即 OCR 中一些潜在的未来下跌已经被当前的抵押贷款利率所捕获，这意味着从这里开始，无论固定期限如何，更多下跌的范围可能比我们迄今为止看到的要慢一些/更小。”

“Either way, the delicate decisions currently faced by mortgage borrowers may continue for a while yet.”
“无论哪种方式，抵押贷款借款人目前面临的微妙决定可能会持续一段时间。”

He said it could make sense for borrowers to have loans split and fixed across a range of terms.
他说，借款人将贷款拆分并固定在一系列条款中可能是有意义的。

“I have heard some people are now taking a mix of six months, 12 months, 18 months and hoping to spread the terms and always having something coming up for renewal so they can take advantage of rates as they go down.”
“我听说有些人现在混合使用 6 个月、12 个月、18 个月，希望扩大条款，并且总是有一些东西需要续订，这样他们就可以在利率下降时利用。”

来源：RNZ

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